EIA predicts US fossil fuel production to set records over coming two years

In the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, fossil fuels are forecasted to reach almost 73 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2018 and 75 quadrillion BTU in 2019–the highest levels of production since recording began.

This is largely due to increased production of natural gas and crude oil being fueled by hydraulic fracturing–fracking–techniques in tight rock formations. Natural gas is expected to dominate 2018, while crude oil growth will be a major factor in 2019. While coal production is expected to continue declines, natural gas, crude oil, and hydrocarbon gas liquid (HGL) increases–all fossil fuels–are predicted to offset its losses.

The EIA is predicting a 2 percent decline in coal production to 759 million short tons in 2018, followed by another 2 percent decline in 2019, contributed to by low competing natural gas prices. By contrast, dry natural gas production is expected to hit a 9 percent increase over its 2017 levels, and that record-setting pace is expected to continue into 2019. Growth in that industry is likely to be concentrated in Appalachia, as well as the Texan and New Mexican Permian Basin.

At the same time, U.S. crude oil production is poised to average 10.3 million barrels per day in 2018–a 10 percent increase over 2018. This would be another record-setting annual gain, and that trend is expected to continue into 2019, to reach an average of 10.8 million barrels per day (b/d). Again, the Permian region is expected to support this, but seven new oil-producing projects are also scheduled to begin by the end of 2019 in the Gulf of Mexico. HGL increases should coincide, with averages of 4.2 million b/d in 2018 and 4.6 million b/d in 2019.