NREL analysis presents two potential paths to meeting residential solar cost reduction targets
An analysis from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) recently suggested two potential cost-reduction roadmaps to reaching the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) residential solar photovoltaic (PV) cost target by 2030.
The report identifies and quantifies a range of possible cost reduction opportunities and outlines how they could impact system costs in in the roof replacement or new construction markets. It models two pathways for each market segment: a less aggressive pathway that includes an incremental shift from current market practices and a visionary pathway leading to a more dramatic shift.
“Our findings suggest that between now and 2030 homeowners could see a considerable cost savings when installing PV and a new roof at the same time,” Kristen Ardani, lead author of the report and a solar technology markets and policy analyst at NREL, said. “We also found that PV installed on new construction offers opportunities for even greater cost reduction. However, it will require considerable business model and permitting process innovation to realize the cost savings potential identified in each of these market segments.”
The report identifies and defines four key cost-reduction opportunities including market maturity, business model integration, product innovation and economies of scale.
The report’s modeling suggests that PV installation for new housing developments could reduce residential PV installation savings by 61 percent relative to a quarter one 2017 benchmark system price. PV installations at the time of roof replacement could lead to 55 percent savings.
The analysis found that non-hardware, or soft, costs account for approximately 65 percent of the savings. The greatest savings opportunities came from supply chain, sales and marketing, overhead, permitting, inspection, and interconnection and installation labor.
