Report predicts US energy sector emissions to stay mostly flat through 2050
The Annual Energy Outlook 2019, a new report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), predicts emissions levels among the energy sector to remain as they are through 2050.
The report indicates that emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and carbon dioxide (CO2) will remain mostly flat, barring any changes to current laws and regulations. This report comes after the industry experienced declines for decades as a result of the 1990 Clean Air Act amendments and the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) first implemented in 2015.
While these programs did not target CO2 emissions explicitly, changes in fuel use, operation rates, and consequential retirement decisions contributed to their fall. Similarly, compliance with MATS led to drops in SO2 and NOx production.
While emissions are expected to decrease a mere 0.1 billion metric tons through 2050, the EIA predicts generation to continue growing, by as much as 23 percent over the same period. Largely, this should come from natural gas and renewables, as one-third of the coal-fired capacity in place today is expected to retire by then and costs for its competitors continue to fall. Solar and wind capacity is expected to rise, and combined renewables generation capacity could increase by nearly 400 gigawatts by 2050. Its closest competitor — natural gas — is expected to gain 360 GW.
