Analysis examines tight oil production prospects

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is projecting tight oil production, which became the more common form of oil production in 2015, will continue to increase through 2030.

The EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2019 Reference maintains the tight oil production level would ultimately reach more than 10 million barrels per day (b/d) in the early 2030s while noting tight oil production reached 6.5 million b/d in the United States in 2018, accounting for 61 percent of total production.

The projected uptick is attributed to improved drilling efficiencies and reduced costs, which makes developing tight oil resources less sensitive to oil prices than in the past.

Future growth also depends upon a variety of factors, including the quality of resources, technology and operational improvements that increase productivity and reduce costs and market prices.

The Outlook includes several sensitivity cases incorporating different assumptions regarding oil prices, technological improvement, and resource recoverability.

The Spraberry, Bone Spring, and Wolfcamp are three substantial tight oil plays in the Permian Basin, per the analysis, accounting for 41 percent of tight oil production in 2018 while approximately half of the cumulative tight oil production through 2050 is expected to come from those three plays.

The Bakken and Eagle Ford plays remain major contributors to tight oil supply through 2050, accounting for 19 percent and 17 percent of cumulative tight oil production, respectively.