EIA anticipates decline in energy-related CO2 emissions

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is forecasting a 2.2 percent decrease in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions this year, on the heels of a 2.7 rise in 2018.

The EIA’s July Short-Term Energy Outlook attributes virtually all of the forecast decrease to fewer emissions from coal consumption – noting the natural gas CO2 emissions increase forecast and petroleum CO2 emissions remain virtually unchanged.

The EIA said Monthly Energy Review numbers showed energy-related CO2 emissions in the first three months of 2019 were similar to those in the first three months of 2018 and in the first quarter of 2019, EIA estimates energy-related emissions totaled 1,367 million metric tons (MMmt) – representing nearly equal to those in the first quarter of 2018.

The analysis revealed the EIA believes CO2 emissions from coal will decrease by 169 MMmt in 2019, which officials said is the largest decrease in CO2 emissions from coal since 2015 while EIA projects CO2 emissions from natural gas to increase by 53 MMmt.

The changes are due to forecast changes in the electricity generation mix, as natural gas continues to grow as the most prevalent electricity generation fuel.

The EIA’s expectation is CO2 emissions from petroleum consumption, which has been on the rise each of the past six years, will be virtually flat in 2019.