EIA projects 2020 to set 23 GW installation record for wind turbines

With the phaseout of the full value of the U.S. production tax credit (PTC) looming, developers are rushing to cash in on wind turbine generation, causing a surge of new capacity the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts could reach 23 GW by year’s end.

The previous record was 13.2 GW, set in 2012 — another year marked by tax credit reductions. This year’s prediction comes even though only 5 GW of capacity has been added in the first eight months of 2020 — although this in and of itself is more added in the first eight months of any year other than 2009. According to power plant owners and developers, another 18.5 GW are expected to come online from September through December, though.

Notably, the EIA’s November 2020 Short-Term Energy Outlook also puts wind’s share of U.S. electricity generation at higher than any other renewable electricity generation source: 8.8 percent this year. It could reach 10.3 percent by the end of 2021.

Despite the rush for this year specifically, any projects that began construction in 2019 will qualify for lower values of the PTC, so long as they come online by the end of 2023. December tends to be the high point for wind turbine capacity additions each year. Over the past decade, 41 percent of annual wind capacity was brought online in December.

In terms of shares, Texas continues to possess the largest wind turbine capacity in the United States, at 29.1 GW as of August. Another 4 GW of installations are expected there by the end of 2020. Iowa is its nearest competitor, with just over 10 GW, but the state adding the next highest amount of capacity this year is Oklahoma, which is expected to add 2.7 GW.