U.S. renewables share of electricity generation expected to double by 2050

According to the Annual Energy Outlook 2021 released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), renewable sources’ share of the national electricity generation mix is set to double from 21 percent in 2020 to 42 percent in 2050.

That change of pace will largely be fueled by two simultaneous factors: wind and solar generation growth, while nuclear and coal-fired generation decreases. The natural gas share of generation is expected to remain fairly constant despite low prices, allowing for renewables to surpass it by 2030. At that point, renewables are expected to become the predominant energy source in the United States.

According to a reference case cited in the report, natural gas should continue to consist of approximately one-third of the total generation from 2020 to 2050. This is because regulatory and market factors are increasingly shifting toward the inducement of more renewable generators.

Wind will especially benefit early on, accounting for two-thirds of increases through 2024. This will shift as the production tax credit for wind phases out in 2024, however, leading to solar generation to overtake it and represent almost 80 percent of increased renewable generation through 2050. By contrast, nuclear and coal fleets are expected to be cut in half.

The EIA expects utility-scale and commercial solar PV facilities to continue receiving a 30 percent investment tax credit through 2023, before reducing to a 10 percent credit that will last through 2050. Residential solar PV’s 30 percent credit will likewise last through 2024, after which it will expire entirely.