EIA energy outlook projects trends through 2050

In a new report, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that renewable energy will be the fastest-growing source of energy through 2050, but petroleum and liquid fuels will remain the most consumed source of energy.

The EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2022 contends that energy consumption will increase over the next 30 years as population and economic growth outpace gains in energy efficiency.

“Our baseline case projects that, without changes in laws and regulations, improvements in energy efficiency will slow the pace of growth in U.S. energy consumption, and technological progress and greater resource development will increase energy supply,” EIA Acting Administrator Steve Nalley said. “We look at a variety of cases and compare them to the baseline case to illustrate how the availability of energy resources, the rate of technology advancement, and other factors could shape future U.S. energy markets.”

Among some of the findings, EIA officials said that natural gas and renewable energy will continue to grow through 2050, with renewable energy growing fastest in all scenarios.

Also, electricity will continue to be the fastest-growing energy source in buildings. Wind and solar incentives, along with falling technology costs, will support robust competition with natural gas for electricity generation. State and federal policies continue to provide significant incentives to invest in renewable resources for electricity generation and transportation fuels, while technological advancements will contribute to driving down costs and increasing the competitiveness of renewables.

Further, renewable electricity generation will increase more rapidly than overall electricity demand through 2050. New capacity additions will come largely from wind and solar technologies.

In addition, U.S. production of natural gas, petroleum, and other liquids will rise amid growing demand for exports and industrial uses. U.S. crude oil production will return to pre-pandemic levels in 2023 and stabilize over the long term. Natural gas exports will increasingly drive natural gas production. The report also says gasoline will remain the most prevalent transportation fuel despite electric vehicles gaining market share.

EIA also projects that shares of coal and nuclear power decrease in the U.S. electricity mix.