NY State has plenty of resources to handle summer peak conditions, says NYISO

Electricity supplies in New York State are expected to be adequate this summer, according to a new report from the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO).

The state has a total of 41,049 megawatts (MW) of power resources available to meet forecasted peak demand conditions, which NYISO forecasts will reach 31,765 MW. This is a decrease of 562 MW from the 2021 baseline forecast, due mainly to the growth in distributed solar, which reduces the amount of energy that needs to be supplied by the bulk power system. In a case where we see more extreme weather conditions this summer, peak demand increases to as much as 35,436MW.

“New York’s bulk electric system is prepared to handle forecasted demand this summer,” Emilie Nelson, executive vice president of the New York ISO, said. “However, especially with recent generator retirements, economic uncertainty, and extreme weather, we must move carefully with the grid in transition to maintain system reliability in the future.”

Peak demand is a measurement of consumers’ average total electric demand for one hour. One megawatt of electricity can serve approximately 800-1,000 homes. Last summer’s peak demand was 30,919 MW, recorded on June 29th. The record peak was 33,956 MW in July 2013 at the end of a week-long heatwave.

In addition, NYISO recently evaluated the grid’s reliability through 2030 and found that reserve margins will shrink in upcoming years due primarily to the planned unavailability of simple cycle combustion turbines impacted by the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation’s Peaker Rule. The Peaker Rule is intended to phase out less efficient power plants that run when demand is high. New York may experience even smaller resource adequacy margins if additional power plants become unavailable or if demand is greater than forecasted. The NYISO will continue to identify and address risks to reliability and resilience.