NERC’s report says extreme winter weather could pose challenges in meeting demand
Much of North America is at an elevated risk of having insufficient energy supplies to meet extreme demand this winter, according to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation’s (NERC)
2023–2024 Winter Reliability Assessment
Specifically, the areas identified as being at elevated risk extend over much of the eastern two-thirds of the continent. While resources in these areas are adequate for normal winter peak demand, any prolonged, wide-area cold snaps could pose a challenge for several reasons.
“Extreme cold weather events can cause electricity demand to deviate significantly from historical forecasts. Electricity demand in winter is closely tied to outside temperature. As electric heat pumps and heating systems become more prevalent, their combined effect on system demand is even more pronounced,” Mark Olson, NERC’s manager of Reliability Assessments, said. “The growth of intermittent resources, like solar generation, on the distribution system significantly increases load forecasting complexity and uncertainty. Once again, we strongly recommend that operators take the necessary steps to prepare for winter.”
This assessment includes a series of recommendations to reduce the risks of energy shortfalls on bulk power systems this winter. They recommend the following:
• Cold Weather Preparations – Grid operators, Generator Owners and Generator Operators should implement the NERC Level 3 Essential Actions alert, Cold Weather Preparations for Extreme Weather Events III, and winter operating plans.
• Fuel – Reliability Coordinators and Balancing Authorities should implement fuel surveys and monitor fuel supply adequacy.
• Load Forecasting – Balancing authorities should anticipate potential for underestimating load in extreme cold and take early action to reduce the risk of reserve shortfall.
• State Regulators and Policymakers – State regulators and policymakers should support public appeal for reduced electricity and natural gas use and be prepared to handle requests for environmental and transportation waivers when needed for reliability.
“We enter the winter season with new cold weather standards in effect, specifically aimed at improving winter preparedness and coordination between Generator Owners and Generator Operators and bulk power system operators. Additional cold weather standards recently adopted by NERC’s Board have been filed for FERC approval,” John Moura, NERC’s director of Reliability Assessments and Performance Analysis, said. “This is a positive development in ensuring industry is prepared for extreme cold weather.”
NERC’s Winter Reliability Assessments examine multiple factors that collectively provide deep insights into reliability risk. These factors include resource adequacy, encompassing reserve margins and scenarios to identify operational risk; fuel assurance; and preparations to mitigate reliability concerns.
