NYISO releases its ten-year comprehensive reliability plan
The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) issued its 2023-2032 Comprehensive Reliability Plan (CRP) this week, highlighting the growing risks to electric system reliability.
The biennial CRP examines projected increases in peak demand due to electrification of the transportation and building sectors; additional generator deactivations; delayed implementation of planned infrastructure projects; and extreme weather. It also sets forth a plan to maintain a reliable bulk electric grid based on expected changes and conditions over a ten-year planning period.
“Our latest report demonstrates the continued importance of the NYISO’s in-depth planning process and the need to closely monitor the rapidly changing electric grid,” Zach Smith, vice president, system and resource planning at NYISO, said. “In this CRP, we highlight several risk factors that could adversely affect system reliability in the months and years ahead.”
Along with rising demand due to continued electrification, the report points out that there are several large commercial projects in upstate New York that are in development and are forecasted to significantly increase energy use. In addition, state legislation enacted last year will require the phase-out of the New York Power Authority’s small natural gas plants located in New York City by Dec. 31, 2030.
Thus, it found that if demand on the grid grows at a rate greater than the buildout of new generation and transmission, reliability deficiencies could arise within the CRP’s ten-year planning period.
However, the potential risks and resource needs may be resolved by new capacity resources coming into service, construction of additional transmission facilities, increased energy efficiency, integration of distributed energy resources and/or growth in demand response participation.
Specifically, the CRP underscores the importance of the timely completion of planned transmission projects – primarily the Champlain Hudson Power Express (CHPE) project. Without the CHPE project in service by May 2026 or other offsetting solutions, reliability margins within New York City would be deficient starting in 2026.
Also, the transition from a summer peaking system to a winter peaking system also poses challenges to grid reliability. This shift, driven by the electrification of the building and transportation sectors, is expected to occur within 10 years. A winter peaking system introduces new reliability concerns, particularly around fuel availability for gas-fired generators. Preliminary results of the 2023 Fuel and Energy Security study found that NYISO will need to rely heavily on dual-fuel generation resources to support winter system reliability into the next decade.
