EIA report anticipates first US refinery runs decline since 2009

For the first time in a decade, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expecting refinery runs to decline and average 17.0 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2019.

The EIA’s Refinery Capacity Report maintains gross inputs to refineries, also known as refinery runs, have increased each year since 2009, having most recently reached a record high of 17.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2018.

However, officials said monthly data through May and forecast for the remainder of 2019 points to a decline.

The analysis determined refinery runs typically reach their highest points in the summer when demand for petroleum products tends to peak. At this point in 2019, weekly refinery runs have averaged 17.0 b/d through August 9, or 1.4 percent lower than during the same period in 2018.

Weekly refinery runs surpassed 18 million b/d in the week ending Aug. 2—a level achieved only seven times in the past decade.

Damage from an explosion at the Philadelphia Energy Solutions (PES) refinery in South Philadelphia in June led PES to discontinue operations, as officials acknowledged the refinery had the largest refining capacity among East Coast refineries, but experienced financial strains in recent years.

Since the explosion, refinery runs in the East Coast region have averaged 897,000 b/d, a decline of about 211,000 b/d from their averages in the six weeks before the explosion.